ForexBall Education: Major market moving events for 32nd week of 2015

Author Haresh Menghani Category Fundamental Analysis 03 Aug 2015 Updated at 03:10 CET
Following a monthly loss in June, last week the overall US Dollar Index (I.USDX), though ended the week with a minor loss, finished the month on a strong note. Last week's economic data out from the US showed the economy growing at slower-than-expected pace in the second quarter of 2015. However, the FOMC statement, also released in the week gone by, continued to show confidence in the economic recovery, thus holding the possibilities of an interest rate hike during its meeting in September.
 
With the beginning of a new month, investors now gear up for some top-tier economic releases, which includes important PMI figure, monetary policy decisions from Australia, Japan and UK ahead of the closely watched US employment reports. Here is a brief outlook on some of the important market-moving events scheduled for the upcoming week, which have the potential to trigger a meaningful volatility in the Forex market. 
 
US Economic Releases
 
The center of attraction from this week's busy economic calendar would be the US monthly jobs report, also known as NFP, for the month of July, scheduled for release on Friday. NFP data has traditionally been known for generating substantial volatility in the market and this week's NFP data on Friday would be no exception. Moreover, taking into consideration last week's FOMC statement, which reaffirmed the strength of US economic recovery, a strong NFP release would further strengthen the prospects of an interest rate-hike, sooner rather than later. Barring a disappointment in the number of new jobs created during the month of March, labor market reports has surpassed even the most optimistic analyst expectations. This week's NFP data is again expected to continue reflecting steady pace of improvement in the US labor market conditions with anticipated addition of 224K new jobs during the month of July and unemployment rate expected holding steady at 5.3%.

In the run-up to the NFP data, ADP report, which shows the number of private-sector jobs addition and provides an early estimate for the government's report, is scheduled for release on Wednesday. The ADP report is expected to show an addition of 218,000 new private-sector jobs in July, down from 237,000 jobs in June. Investors will also have a look at the US trade balance data for the month of June, also scheduled for release on Wednesday, and is expected to reach $42.6 Billion from the previous reading of $41.9 Billion. Meanwhile, the prospects of strong US economic growth is likely to be supported by this week's ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, which are scheduled for release on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI is expected to continue reflecting expanding activity in July with manufacturing index expected to come-in at 53.6 and non-manufacturing index expected to print 56.4.
 
Only after an exceptionally weak employment figures accompanied with a slew of weaker-than-expected US economic data, the markets would start speculating a possible delay in announcing an interest rate hike by the US central bank, which eventually might ignite a near-term corrective move for the US Dollar.
 
Central Bank Monetary Policy Decisions
 
Preceding the keenly watched US monthly job reports, a slew of major central bank policy meetings namely, RBA, BoE and BoJ, kicks off with the announcement of RBA's monetary policy decision on Tuesday. BoE and BoJ are also scheduled to announce their monetary policy decisions on Thursday and Friday respectively. Compared to the much awaited Federal Reserve's announcement to start raising interest rates and the scheduled release of NFP data later during the week, this week's central bank decision announcements are unlikely to have a major impact on the Forex market. 
 
Important Releases from UK
 
The near-term movement for GBP pairs, however, might be now be driven by BoE's quarterly inflation report, which is also scheduled for release on Wednesday. The BoE's quarterly inflation report reveals central bank's inflation projection and economic growth over the next 2 years, and thus could help investors in evaluating the possibilities of any rate hike by the central bank. Following a downgrade of its economic growth forecast in the May release, any further change in the projected numbers might trigger some additional volatility for GBP pairs. Investors will also scrutinize Governor Mark Carney's comments on the state of the economy, during a press conference, which will be followed by the monetary policy decision announcement.

Other meaningful economic releases, that could provide some movement for GBP pairs for the week, includes PMI figures for the month of July, i.e. Construction PMI and Services PMI. Construction PMI data is scheduled for release on Tuesday and release of Services PMI is scheduled on Wednesday. Also watch-out for UK manufacturing production data, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production from UK and is scheduled for release on Thursday. Meanwhile, UK trade balance data for the month of June, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to turn for the worst with an estimate reading to show a deficit of 9.1 Billion Pounds, up sharply from a 17-month low deficit of 8.0 Billion Pounds recorded for the month of May.
 
Releases Affecting Australian Dollar (AUD)
 
This week's dominant release that could materially impact the Australian Dollar (AUD) is Australian employment report, which is scheduled for release on Thursday. Following last month’s dismal reading, but still a better-than-expected print, market participants are again expecting a stronger number for the month of July. Consensus estimate the number of new people employed during the month of October to have increased by 12.5 K, while unemployment rate is expected to move back to 6.1% from 6.0% recorded in the previous month. Other economic indicators that might lead to an eventful week for AUD also includes, Australian trade balance and retail sales data, both scheduled for release on Tuesday. Traders will also closely track the release of trade balance data from Australia's largest trading partner, China, on Saturday. Also watch-out for the Chinese services PMI data, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
 
With several top-tier macroeconomic releases on tap, the upcoming week promises to be a week full of meaningful and volatile moves in the currency market.
 
At any use of the analytical material taken from the site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing center «Admiral Markets», reference to the company site is obligatory.
 
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