ForexBall Education: Major market moving events for 30th week of 2015

Author Haresh Menghani Category Fundamental Analysis 20 Jul 2015 Updated at 03:39 CET
A week that began with positive news of Greece agreeing to its creditor’s demands over the reforms needed for the country to unlock an additional €86 Billion over the next three years was overshadowed by comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. During the semi-annual testimony on monetary policy, the Fed Chair cited strengthening of the US economic recovery momentum as a cause to raise interest in 2015. This accompanied with a batch of mixed economic reports helped the US Dollar to gain against majority of its counterparts except against GBP, which benefited from BoE Governor Mark Carney's comments that UK interest rates could rise sooner than expected.
Going forward, this week's lighter US economic calendar, featuring the release of existing and new home sales data, might restrict some big moves but continue supporting positive sentiment for the US Dollar. However, important releases from other global economies might provide some momentum in the Forex market. Let's have a brief overview on important market moving events scheduled during the course of up-coming week.
US Housing Data
Following last week's positive housing starts and building permits data, this week's release of existing and new home sales data will further help investors to evaluate the health of the US housing market. Existing home sale data, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are expected to continue its positive momentum in June with the consensus estimating the figure to advance further to reach an annualized rate of 5.40 million units. Meanwhile, new home sales data, scheduled for release on Friday, are expected to register a small slide in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 543,000 units.
Important Releases from UK
UK economic releases consisting of minutes from Bank of England's latest monetary policy meeting and retail sales data are likely to continue probing some volatile moves for GBP pairs in the week ahead. The minutes from BoE's latest policy meeting is scheduled for release on Wednesday. Although, the minutes is unlikely to show any change in the number of MPC members showing willingness to raise benchmark interest rates but considering BoE Governor Mark Carney's comments on UK interest rates last week, the minutes might help investors in determining the timing of a rate-hike announcement by the central bank. Meanwhile, consumer spending, which remains supportive pillar of UK's economic recovery, is expected to have advanced in June. Consensus forecast retail sales for June, which is scheduled for release on Thursday, to have advanced by 0.4% on a month-on-month basis as compared to a 0.2% rise recorded in the month of May.
Euro-Zone PMI Data
From the Euro-zone, investors will be particularly focusing on the release of PMI data, a leading indicator of economic health, for both manufacturing and services sector from the Euro-zone. The flash reading of the PMI numbers from Euro-zone's two largest economies, France and Germany, along with the broader Euro-zone PMI for the month of October are scheduled for release on Friday. Both, manufacturing and services PMI numbers are expected to print above 50, the dividing point between expansion and contraction territories, indicating expansion in the overall business activity in the Euro-zone.
Releases Affecting Australian Dollar
Elsewhere, economic releases that could possibly impact movement for the Australian Dollar (AUD) includes the release of the minutes from RBA's latest monetary policy meeting and quarterly CPI data for the quarter ended June 2015, scheduled for release on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Although, RBA left its benchmark interest-rate unchanged at 2.0% but has left the doors open for further interest-rate cut action, if needed, and hence the minutes are likely to prove a trigger some volatile move for AUD pairs. Meanwhile, Australian CPI, which remained unchanged at the two-year low reading of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, is expected to have surged in the second-quarter of 2015 with consensus estimating the measure to come-in at 0.8%.
Also, the flash version of Chinese manufacturing data for the month of July is scheduled for release on Friday. The PMI data is expected to continue printing reading below 50, indicating contraction in manufacturing activity. Being the largest manufacturer of the world, Chinese manufacturing data bears some meaningful impact on the Forex market. Hence, deterioration in Chinese manufacturing activity is likely to fade demand for commodity currencies, especially the Australian counterpart (AUD), China's largest trading partners.
RBNZ Monetary Policy Meeting
Along with BoE and RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand (RBNZ) will also be on investor’s watch-list. In its June policy meeting, the RBNZ surprised market by announcing a 25 bps cut to its benchmark interest rates. Given the a sharp fall in dairy incomes and lacklustre inflation led by renewed weakness in crude oil prices, market remains divided on the possibilities of a yet another rate-cut announcement from this week’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Also watch-out for New-Zealand’s monthly trade balance data, which is scheduled for release on Friday.
Canadian Wholesale And Retail Sales Figures
After witnessing recent surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC), coupled with the negative reading of monthly Wholesale figure, to -1.0% against 0.1% expected,  on Monday, market players would closely examine the details of Thursday’s Retail Sales in order to determine near-term CAD moves. Should the actual figure mark a reversal of its previous -0.1% reading by a 0.4% growth number, the Loonie, as it is nicknamed, can witness a bit of pullback in its broader downward trajectory.
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