ForexBall Education: A Look at Some Important Economic Events Lined Up For the Upcoming Week
In a week that ended with a dramatic announcement on a referendum in Greece, witnessed the overall US Dollar Index (I.USDX) gaining ground mainly on the back of some optimistic US economic data, which included Durable Goods orders, some housing market numbers and final revision of US GDP data. Improvement in core durable goods orders and stronger-than-expected housing data, suggested that the Federal Reserve could be on track to announce the first interest rate-hike since 2006 during its September meeting.
Going forward, market participants will shift their focus from Greece drama to one of the most closely watched US economic indicator, monthly jobs report, and some top tier economic releases, scheduled at the beginning of a new month. Investors will also keep a close eye on any further developments over the Greek crisis. Here is a brief outlook of important market moving events scheduled during the course of upcoming week.
Keenly Watched US Jobs Report
The center of attraction from this week's economic calendar is the release of June NFP data, scheduled on Thursday. The US employment reports (NFP) for June will be released on Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. NFP data has traditionally been known for generating substantial volatility in global financial markets and this week's release would be no exception. As the US Fed moves closer towards announcing its first interest rate-hike in nine years, strong labor market reports would further reaffirm a possible rate hike in September. Following a very healthy addition of 280,000 jobs in May, which was much higher-than consensus estimates and signaling towards a strong labor market recovery, economists expect the positive trend to continue. The official jobs report is expected to show an addition of 231,000 new jobs during the month of June, which although is lower than the previous release but would still indicate a healthy labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 5.5% in May to 5.4% in June.
Preceding the official jobs report, ADP report, which shows the number of private-sector jobs addition, is scheduled for release on Wednesday and would provide an early estimate for the government's report. The ADP report is expected to show private-sector employment pick-up in June with the addition of 216,000 new jobs.
In the run-up to the jobs data, important economic data scheduled for release this week also includes Pending Home Sales data on Monday, Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence index on Tuesday, and ISM manufacturing PMI data for the month of June, also scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Although, the Eurogroup has already rejected any temporary extension of bailout for Greece, following which the Greek Parliament announced referendum, Euro-zone finance ministers will resume their talks on Tuesday to discuss options leading up to the Greek referendum. Market participants will also focus on the flash reading of Euro-zone CPI, also scheduled for release on Tuesday. The number is expected to show a 0.2% month-on-month rise in inflation as compared to the previous reading of 0.3%.
Important UK Releases
Key highlights from this week's UK economic calendar features final GDP growth rate and current account deficit for the first-quarter of 2015, both scheduled for release on Tuesday. UK current account deficit has been constantly rising since last many quarters and after swelling to 27.0 Billion Pounds in the third-quarter of 2014, the deficit improved a ted bit, but still remained elevated at 25.3 Billion Pounds in the last quarter of 2014. A further improvement is expected for the first-quarter of 2015 with consensus estimating a deficit of 23.7 Billion Pounds. Meanwhile, the final GDP print for the first-quarter of 2015 is expected to come-in better than the second estimate with the consensus bracing for a reading of 0.4% as compared to 0.3% reported in the previous release.
Other highlights from this week's economic calendar, that could have some significant impact on GBP pairs includes important PMI figures (Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI) for the month of June. UK Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by Construction PMI on Thursday and the release of Services PMI is scheduled on Friday. All the PMI readings are expected to better their readings recorded in the month of May, continuing with their expansionary phase during the month of June.
Economic Releases Impacting Australian Dollar (AUD)
Economic data that could have a material impact on the Australian Dollar (AUD), includes PMI figures for September from Australia's largest trading partner, China, along with country's trade balance and monthly retail sales data for the month of May. Notable economic releases from China includes the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data along with HSBC's final manufacturing PMI, all scheduled for release on Wednesday. Although, the Chinese official manufacturing PMI and HSBC's final manufacturing PMI readings are expected to show diverging picture for Chinese manufacturing sector, with the official PMI expected to show expansion while HSBC PMI expected to remain in contraction territory, the readings are expected to remain close to 50.00 mark, separating expanding and contracting activity. Chinese services PMI is expected to continue showing expanding activity in the non-manufacturing sector.
Meanwhile, Australian Trade Balance data for the month of May is scheduled for release on Thursday. Following an unexpected surge in deficit during the month of May, market participants are expecting a lower deficit of A$ 2.21 Billion for the month of May. Lastly, the monthly Retail Sales data, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to better April's flat reading of 0.0% and come-in at 0.5% for the month of May.
Senior Market Analyst
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