ForexBall Education: Major market moving events for the upcoming 24th week of 2015
During the early part of the week gone-by, the US Dollar traded weak primarily led by a stronger Euro, which got a lift by a rise in Euro-zone CPI to eight-month high. Following its early week lackluster move, the US Dollar managed to recover sharply on back of surprisingly excellent US Non-Farm Payrolls data, showing a job growth of 280,000 in May. Investors viewed the strong jobs report as a step forward towards an eventual interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The Euro strength was dampened by renewed Greek jitters, which eventually led to the common-currency erasing majority of the early week gains. Meanwhile, mixed UK PMI figures for the month of May did little to support GBP, which drifted lower for third consecutive week against US Dollar. Nevertheless, the overall US Dollar Index (I.USDX), that started the week on back-foot managed to recoup some of its losses but still ended the week with minor weakness.
Moving forward, US economic calendar for the upcoming week is relatively quieter, featuring only retail sales data. Meanwhile, employment reports from Australia along with CPI and industrial production data from China promises to provide some momentum for AUD pairs. Market participants will also keep a close eye on the monetary policy decisions from RBNZ and, manufacturing production and trade balance data from UK. Here is a brief overview on some of the important market moving events, scheduled for release during the upcoming week.
US Retail Sales - Even as the retail sales slowed in April, economists are still optimistic and hope the data to provide clues of continuing economic recovery and a faster pace of growth in the second quarter of 2015. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release the data for the month of May on Thursday. Consensus estimates are pointing towards a healthy growth with retail sales expected to rise 1.1% in May while core retails sales, that excludes automobile sales, are expected to register a gain of 0.7%.
Other releases featuring the US economic calendar includes Producer Price Index (PPI) and Preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index, both scheduled for release on Friday. The PPI is expected to show a gain of 0.4% in May. The Preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index reading for June is expected to improve to 91.3 in June from 88.6 in May.
Releases affecting Australian Dollar
Australian Employment Reports - The key highlight from this week's Australian economic calendar features Australian employment data, scheduled for release on Thursday. Following a disappointing employment report for April, employment report for the month of May is expected to show signs of recovery in the Australian labor market. The number is expected to show a healthy number of new jobs creation during the month of May, with the consensus estimates expecting an addition of 15.2 K jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 6.2%, matching April reading.
Chinese Data - Being the largest consumer of commodities and the biggest trading partner of Australia, economic data from China has always been watched keenly for any material impact on commodity currencies, including the Australian Dollar. This week's notable releases from China include CPI and industrial production data for the month of May, scheduled for release on Tuesday and Friday respectively. Chinese economic data is also scrutinized to gauge economic strength of the world's second-largest economy.
UK Manufacturing and Trade Balance Data
Manufacturing Data - The latest reading for UK manufacturing production data, which makes up for around 80% of total industrial production from UK, is the key highlight from this week's UK economic calendar and is scheduled for release on Wednesday. After registering a modest but better-than-expected gain of 0.4% in March, economists expect a weaker growth of 0.1% for the month of April. Industrial production for the month of April is also expected to print a weaker growth of 0.2% as compared to a better-than-expected 0.5% growth in the month of March.
Trade Balance Data - Also watch-out for UK trade balance data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, which is expected to better March reading showing a deficit of 10.1 Billion Pounds, but still remain elevated to show a trade deficit of 10.00 Billion Pounds for the month of April.
RBNZ Monetary Policy Decisions
The New-Zealand central bank, RBNZ, is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, where market participants are not expecting any major change to be announced. However, the accompanying monetary policy rate statement, which communicates the economic condition that influenced central bank's decision and future economic outlook that would determine future monetary policy decisions, and a subsequent press conference will be closely scrutinized to determine the central bank's willingness to cut interest rates in the near-future.
Revised Euro-Zone GDP Data - Notable economic releases featuring this week's Euro-zone economic calendar features the revised GDP print for the first-quarter of 2015, scheduled for release on Tuesday. The revised data is expected to match the flash reading, showing a modest growth of 0.4% for Q1 2015.
Given that the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision in the following week and with only a handful of important economic data, scheduled for release during the up-coming week, the Forex market participants are unlikely to take any directional bets for the near-term.
At any use of the analytical material taken from the site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing center «Admiral Markets», reference to the company site is obligatory.
Follow me on twitter @Fx_Haresh for latest market updates